The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in December 2025 to 97.6 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in November and a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in October. Overall, the LEI fell by 1.2% over the second half of 2025, a substantial improvement from its 2.8% contraction over the first half of 2025.

"The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index's financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December.

"However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December. Labor market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025."