S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the October 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices.

More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-Cotality-case-shiller.

As noted last month, Cotality continues to have transaction delays from the recording office in Wayne County, the most populous county in the Detroit metro area. These delays impacted the October transaction data and, therefore, no valid October 2025 update of the Detroit S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index will be provided for the December 30, 2025, release date. There was, however, enough data to calculate a valid September 2025 update, which is provided in Tables 2 and 3.

S&P DJI will continue to provide updates to the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing sale transactions data.

ANALYSIS

"October's data show the housing market settling into a much slower gear, with the National Composite Index up only about 1.4% year over year – among the weakest performances since mid-2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "This figure is essentially unchanged from September's 1.3% annual gain and represents less than a third of the 5.1% average home price increase recorded in 2024. National home prices also continue to lag consumer inflation, as October's CPI is estimated around 3.1% (based on a provisional index the U.S. Treasury announced due to the federal data shutdown) – roughly 1.8 percentage points higher than the latest housing appreciation. In real terms, that gap implies a slight decline in inflation-adjusted home values over the past year.

"Regional performance underscores a striking geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual price gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. These traditionally stable Midwestern and Northeastern metros have sustained solid growth even as broader conditions soften. By contrast, Tampa home prices are down 4.2% year over year – the steepest drop among the 20 cities, marking Tampa's 12th consecutive month of annual declines. Other former high-flyers in the Sun Belt are similarly struggling: Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%) all remain in negative territory. It's a stark reversal from the pandemic boom, as the markets that were once 'pandemic darlings' are now seeing the sharpest corrections while more traditional metros continue to post modest gains.

"Short-term momentum has essentially stalled. Sixteen of the 20 cities saw home prices decline in October (NSA) from the prior month, with Cleveland, Boston, Seattle, and Denver each falling roughly 0.8% to 1.0%. Only Phoenix, Miami, and San Francisco managed slight monthly upticks. Even after adjusting for normal seasonal lulls, the National Index was flat to only slightly positive in October (following a modest +0.2% after seasonal adjustment in September). This broad stagnation suggests that elevated mortgage rates – still hovering around the mid-6% range in late October – are finally overwhelming the market's earlier supply-driven resilience. Would-be buyers are facing the highest borrowing costs in decades, and that affordability squeeze has curbed demand enough to erode price momentum across most of the country.

"For context, this is the weakest annual home price growth since the March through July 2023 period, when the market was absorbing the initial shock of the Fed's rapid rate hikes," Godec concluded. "But today's headwinds appear more entrenched. Elevated mortgage rates, paired with inflation that continues to outpace home price gains, have intensified affordability pressures, potentially setting a new equilibrium of minimal price appreciation or, in some markets, outright declines."

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for October, up from a 1.3% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.3%, down from a 1.4% increase in the previous month.

Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 5.8% increase in October, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.0% and 4.1%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return in October, falling 4.2%.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month changes in October, posting a -0.3% drop for the 20-City Composite Index and -0.2% decreases for both the 10-City Composite and U.S. National Indices.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4% and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.3%.

SUPPORTING DATA

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 1.4% annual increase in October 2025. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2025. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.