Amid a year marked by economic turbulence and market swings, investment leaders at American Century Investments, the global asset manager with more than $270 billion* in assets under supervision, urge calm, perspective and discipline in their latest investment outlook. As investors grapple with uncertainty driven by tariffs, diverging economic signals and geopolitical tensions, their message is clear: they believe in staying the course, diversifying and focusing on quality.

"As we enter the second half of 2025, it seems like we have experienced more economic upheaval, uncertainty and market volatility over the past six months than one would expect over an entire year or more," said Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of Multi-Asset Strategies for American Century. Citing the chart below, he added, "The data support this impression, as the level of economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. is now in uncharted waters." 

"If you had taken a sabbatical and gone off the grid during April, you would have come back to find little change in the value of the S&P 500^® Index. You missed a sharp decline, an equally sharp rebound and news headlines that might have tempted you to do the wrong thing with your portfolio," said Victor Zhang, chief investment officer of American Century.

This anecdote underscores a critical point: reacting emotionally to short-term volatility can be more damaging than the volatility itself. "The challenge in this environment is remembering that uncertainty isn't the same as a negative outcome," Zhang added. "Rather, it means there's a broader range of potential outcomes, and not all are bad."

Expecting a range of outcomes
Weiss pointed to a growing divergence between "hard data" — such as employment and inflation figures — and "soft data," including consumer sentiment and expectations. This divergence has created plausible cases for both bullish and bearish scenarios. On the bullish side: resilient labor markets, strong retail sales and healthy durable goods orders. On the bearish side: worsening consumer confidence and pessimistic manufacturing outlooks.

"The soft data points to a recession, while the hard data assumes the bull case holds up. Extreme readings from the soft data could be overblown or prove to be prescient, foretelling a significant weakening in the hard data," said Weiss.

The case for long-term discipline
In the face of such uncertainty, American Century investment professionals emphasize the timeless principle of patience—an approach deeply embedded in the firm's identity. As a long-term investor, American Century is committed to delivering superior, risk-adjusted returns over time. Its unique ownership structure frees the asset manager from the pressures of quarterly earnings expectations, empowering the firm to maintain a disciplined, long-term perspective. This alignment allows American Century to act in the best interests of its clients, staying focused on enduring value rather than short-term market noise.

In a world where headlines can shift sentiment in an instant, the best course of action may be to stick to a well-thought-out plan. "Recent market activity has shown us how a properly balanced portfolio can take advantage of short-term noise. Diversification, not market timing, may be the best defense against heightened uncertainty," Zhang advised. "The first half of the year's volatility and shift in market leadership again reminded us of the benefits of taking a long-term view and removing emotion from our decision-making."

As the second half of 2025 unfolds, investors would do well to remember that uncertainty is not the enemy — but emotional decision-making might be. For more quarterly investment insights for 2025, read the full American Century investment outlook, with insights on:

• Global macroeconomic outlook,
• U.S. equity outlook,
• Global equity outlook,
• Global fixed income outlook,
• Multi-asset strategies outlook and
• Sustainable investing trends.