MarketNsight provides leading real estate data and analysis across the Southeast, tracking pending sales weekly and identifying housing trends before its competitors. In a mid-October update, MarketNsight had already seen indications that pending sales began to turn a corner prior to the election. The latest October data confirms that this was so. As always, MarketNsight is way ahead of the curve. 

Pending Sales Trend

Pending sales have defied logic since September, rising even though rates increased from 6.09% to 6.72% through the last week of October. Pending sales were up 16% year to year in the fourth week of October and are up an average of 8% YTY for September/October. 

John Hunt, Principal and Chief Analyst at MarketNsight, says, “We expect that the national results for October will reflect a similar pending sales increase when the NAR releases its October data at the end of November.”

Supply and Demand

Total inventory at the end of October 2024 was up 2% over September 2024 and up 49% year to year. The Atlanta metro area ended September and October with 3.7 months of supply (MOS), signaling a seasonal peak. MOS and inventory should fall from here under normal seasonal conditions. Atlanta needs an additional 30,000 units of inventory annually just to get back to equilibrium.

While total inventory is still below 2019 levels, MOS is now higher than 2019 because the level of total sales activity today is still about 20% less than in 2019. 

If interest rates begin to moderate, we will see the missing 20% of buyers begin to flow back into the market. Under this scenario, MarketNsight’s forecast is that MOS will be lower in 2025 than 2024.

MarketNsight’s MarketWatch is December 12

MarketNsight will host its semiannual MarketWatch webinar on December 12, 2024, from 10 A.M. to 12 P.M. Eastern Time, featuring MarketNsight’s Chief Analyst John Hunt and Dr. Rajeev Dhawan from the Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center. 

Both speakers and presenting sponsors, BankSouth Mortgage, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties New Homes Division, and Jackson EMC, will discuss the effects of falling interest rates on housing demand. They will also consider the fallout from this year’s election cycle and present their forecasts for 2025 and beyond.