Data through June 2015, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed increases in first mortgage, second mortgage, and composite default rates. The composite rate posted a 0.93% default rate in June, five basis points up from the previous month. The first mortgage default rate reported a default rate of 0.80%, six basis points up from its historical low in May. The auto loan default rate reported a new historical low of 0.85%, a one basis point decrease from the previous month. The bank card default rate dropped another 10 basis points, reporting 2.88% in June. The second mortgage default rate reported an increase of 13 basis points to 0.55%.

Three of the five major cities also continued their downward trend, reporting negative month-over-month default rates in June. Los Angeles led the way, reporting 0.88%, down seven basis points from the previous month. New York and Dallas continued their downward inclination, reporting historical lows of 0.91% and 0.68%, decreases of four basis points and two basis points, respectively. Miami had a significant increase of 25 basis points, reporting 1.42% in June. Chicago bounced back from a three month decline to report a default rate of 1.04%, up four basis points from the previous month.

"This report, and the economy's overall condition, both look a lot like last month," said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee. "The economy continues to expand at a modest pace, helped by the 5.3% unemployment rate, a continued low rate of initial unemployment claims, and recent improvements in housing starts. All of these factors should continue to support the current low rate of consumer credit defaults. However, some factors raise concern for both consumers' financial conditions and the economy. While oil prices are low, they remain volatile as traders and investors weigh the impact of Greece, the agreement with Iran, and the latest bounce and bump in China's equity market. For consumer spending, oil matters the most of these possible developments. Oil price swings are feeding into consumer prices as seen in the uptick in the June CPI numbers. However, we would need higher inflation for a long time period before it would worry consumers or cause a pause in spending or credit usage.

 "Looking across the five cities reported on each month, Miami shows a jump in consumer defaults, Chicago saw a slight uptick, while the others saw default rates flat to down. The favorable default trends remain in place. The increase in Chicago's numbers is too small to be a concern. Miami's figure does not appear to be an issue, either; in the next month or two, data are likely to show Miami in good shape compared with the other cities. Among the different categories, bank cards saw the largest drop while auto loans were off by a tick. First and second mortgages saw a small increase in defaults. None of these data are immediate cause for concern. They reflect continued optimism and spending by consumers."

The table below summarizes the June 2015 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.

The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs: