Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in the Second Quarter of 2011
Press release from the issuing company
Wednesday, August 31st, 2011
Data throughJune 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 3.6% in the second quarter of 2011, after having fallen 4.1% in the first quarter of 2011. With the second quarter's data, the National Index recovered from its first quarter low, but still posted an annual decline of 5.9% versus the second quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their early 2003 levels.
As ofJune 2011, 19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up versus May –Portlandwas flat. However, they were all down compared toJune 2010. Twelve of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have now increased for three consecutive months, a sign of the seasonal strength in the housing market. None of the markets posted new lows with June's report.Minneapolisposted a double-digit 10.8% annual decline;Portlandis not far behind at -9.6%. Thirteen of the cities and both composites saw improvements in their annual rates; however; they all are in negative territory and have been so for three consecutive months.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.9% decline in the second quarter of 2011 over the second quarter of 2010. In June, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively. Thirteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites saw their annual growth rates improve, although remaining in negative territory in June.
"This month's report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows inJune 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago," saysDavid M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all theCaliforniacities plusDallas,DenverandWashington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities –Las Vegas,Miami,PhoenixandTampa– as well as the weakest of all,Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together.
"As with May's report, June showed unusually large revisions across the same MSAs –Detroit,New York,TampaandWashington DC. Our sales pairs data indicate that, once again, these markets reported a lot more sales closing in prior months, which caused the revisions. Since deed recording is usually county based, if the price trends across counties are very different, then delays from a subset of counties can lead to larger revisions. And data lag lengths tend to vary across the counties within a metro area. If counties with relatively stronger/weaker markets report sales with longer/shorter lags, this will result in larger revisions as we receive the lagged data. Revisions are also likely to be larger when sales volumes are low or the proportions of distressed/non-distressed sales are changing rapidly. Any and all of these factors are likely contributing to the revisions we have seen over the past few reports.
"Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites were up in June over May.Portlandwas flat.Clevelandhas improved enough that average home prices in this market are back above itsJanuary 2000levels. Only Detroit andLas Vegasremain below those levels."
As of the second quarter of 2011, average home prices acrossthe United Statesare back at their early-2003 levels. The National Index level had hit a new low in the first quarter of 2011; but recovered by +3.6% in the second quarter. It still remains 5.9% below its 2010Q2 level.
Twelve cities and both Composites have posted three consecutive months of positive month-over-month returns. Eleven of the 20 cities were up 1% or more.