New Omnisend survey of 1,200 Americans reveals a leaner, more cautious 2025 holiday season with 47% of U.S. adults saying they expect to have post holiday debt. Results indicate this could total $55 billion in total holiday debt, averaging $213 per adult American.

At the same time, shoppers are deliberately shrinking their budgets – 78% plan to spend less than last year, and 60% intend to keep total holiday spend below $500. To bridge gaps, 45% consider using buy now, pay later (BNPL) for gifts (18% will, 27% might).

"Households are on a tighter budget in 2025. Inflation has ticked back up and new tariffs are pushing some prices higher. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates this month, but borrowing is still costly and credit card late payments remain high. That's why nearly half of shoppers tell us they'll lean on buy now, pay later – to spread out gift purchases without piling on interest," says Marty Bauer, Ecommerce Expert at Omnisend.

"BNPL isn't niche anymore – last holiday set records for instalment spending online. This season, the winners will be retailers who lead with price transparency, offer BNPL as a clearly explained option and make it easy to shop by budget with gift picks under $25, $50, and $100, continued Bauer"

Why budgets are shrinking and how shoppers are adapting

Among Americans planning to spend less,

• 45% blame rising prices and inflation
• 19% point to tariffs and higher import costs
• 16% say they're proactively avoiding debt.

The tariff effect is already visible – 61% say tariffs have altered their holiday shopping plans. Among those affected, 33% report higher prices on select items, 19% are avoiding China-based platforms like Temu and Shein, and 16% plan to buy fewer or smaller gifts.

"When low-cost goods aren't as cheap as they used to be, families trim lists, buy smaller gifts, and look closer to home. It tracks with the broader picture – with tighter rules on China imports and the end of duty-free treatment for many small packages, some of those ultra-cheap online deals have either disappeared, cost more, or ship slower," says Bauer.