Trump and Clinton Finish With Historically Poor Images

Lydia Saad

Wednesday, November 9th, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton head into the final hours of the 2016 presidential campaign with the worst election-eve images of any major-party presidential candidates Gallup has measured back to 1956. Majorities of Americans now view each of them unfavorably on a 10-point favorability scale, a first for any presidential standard-bearer on this long-term Gallup trend. Trump's image is worse than Clinton's, however, with 61% viewing him negatively on the 10-point scale compared with 52% for her.

Final Pre-Election "Scalometer" Favorable Ratings of Major-Party Presidential Nominees, 1956-2016

Based on U.S. adults; ranked by % total unfavorable

 

Nominee

Total favorable

Total unfavorable

 

 

% (+1 to +5)

% (-1 to -5)

2016 Nov 2-5

D. Trump

36

61

2016 Nov 2-5

H. Clinton

47

52

1964 Oct 8-13

B. Goldwater

43

47

2012 Oct 27-28

M. Romney

55

43

1972 Oct 13-16

G. McGovern

55

41

2004 Oct 22-24

J. Kerry

57

40

1992 Oct 23-25

G.H.W. Bush

59

40

2004 Oct 22-24

G.W. Bush

61

39

2012 Oct 27-28

B. Obama

62

37

1980 Oct 10-13

R. Reagan

64

37

2008 Oct 23-26

B. Obama

62

35

2008 Oct 23-26

J. McCain

63

35

1984 Sep 21-24

W. Mondale

66

34

1992 Oct 23-25

B. Clinton

64

33

1980 Oct 10-13

J. Carter

68

32

1956 Oct 18-23

A. Stevenson

61

31

1984 Sep 21-24

R. Reagan

71

30

1968 Oct 17-22

H. Humphrey

72

28

1968 Oct 17-22

R. Nixon

79

22

1972 Oct 13-16

R. Nixon

76

21

1976 Sep 24-27

G. Ford

78

20

1960 Oct 18-23

R. Nixon

79

16

1976 Sep 24-27

J. Carter

81

16

1960 Oct 18-23

J. Kennedy

80

14

1964 Oct 8-13

L. Johnson

81

13

1956 Oct 18-23

D. Eisenhower

84

12

No data for 1988, 1996 and 2000

Gallup

These findings are based on Gallup's historical "scalometer" favorability measure, which asks respondents for their general opinion of each candidate using a 10-point positive-to-negative scale. Respondents can use any number from +1 to +5 to indicate that they have a favorable view of a candidate, with +5 being highly favorable. They can use any number from -1 to -5 for an unfavorable view, with -5 being highly unfavorable. The latest survey was conducted by telephone Nov. 2-5 with a nationwide sample of U.S. adults.

The scalometer measure tends to produce higher positive ratings than the binary favorable/unfavorable choice that has been the mainstay of Gallup's favorability measurement since 1992, although that is currently more true for Clinton than for Trump. Clinton's straight-up "favorable" rating is 40% in Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending Nov. 6, while Trump's is 35%.

2016 Campaign Sets Record-High Unfavorability Scores

The extent of Americans' distaste for the two major-party candidates is further evident in the extraordinarily high percentages viewing each highly unfavorably -- rating them a -5 or -4 on the scale. Forty-two percent of Americans view Trump highly unfavorably, unchanged from Gallup's prior measure in June. Clinton's highly unfavorable rating is nearly as high, at 39%, but up from 33% in June.

Both candidates' highly unfavorable ratings far outpace any Gallup has recorded before for a major-party presidential nominee, with the next-highest being Republican Barry Goldwater's 26% score in 1964. Even the former Alabama governor and proponent of racial segregation, George Wallace, who ran for president as a third-party candidate in 1968, earned a lower high unfavorability score that year (32%) than the 2016 candidates do today.

Highly Favorable and Highly Unfavorable Ratings of Major-Party Presidential Nominees, 1956-2016

Based on U.S. adults; ranked by % highly unfavorable

 

Nominee

Highly favorable

Highly unfavorable

 

 

% (+4 to +5)

% (-4 to -5)

2016 Nov 2-5

D. Trump

14

42

2016 Nov 2-5

H. Clinton

21

39

1964 Oct 8-13

B. Goldwater

17

26

2012 Oct 27-28

B. Obama

36

24

2004 Oct 22-24

G.W. Bush

34

23

2004 Oct 22-24

J. Kerry

22

22

2012 Oct 27-28

M. Romney

30

22

2008 Oct 23-26

B. Obama

37

22

1972 Oct 13-16

G. McGovern

21

20

2008 Oct 23-26

J. McCain

28

20

1984 Sep 21-24

R. Reagan

43

18

1980 Oct 10-13

J. Carter

31

17

1992 Oct 23-25

G.H.W. Bush

20

16

1980 Oct 10-13

R. Reagan

26

16

1956 Oct 18-23

A. Stevenson

34

16

1992 Oct 23-25

B. Clinton

27

15

1984 Sep 21-24

W. Mondale

28

15

1968 Oct 17-22

H. Humphrey

29

11

1972 Oct 13-16

R. Nixon

41

11

1976 Sep 24-27

G. Ford

29

9

1968 Oct 17-22

R. Nixon

39

8

1960 Oct 18-23

R. Nixon

37

5

1976 Sep 24-27

J. Carter

42

5

1960 Oct 18-23

J. Kennedy

43

5

1964 Oct 8-13

L. Johnson

49

5

1956 Oct 18-23

D. Eisenhower

57

4

Dates for all years are final pre-election; no data for 1988, 1996 and 2000

Gallup

Bottom Line

Americans' fundamental reactions to their 2016 presidential candidates are at least as negative today as when Clinton and Trump emerged as their respective parties' presumptive nominees in June. The subsequent ups and downs of the campaign have resulted in no meaningful change to Trump's image, and have had a modest negative effect on Clinton's, with her highly unfavorable rating inching up to match Trump's.

The 2016 election is the only one in Gallup's polling history to feature two broadly unpopular candidates. Further, when factoring in the high percentages viewing each very negatively, Trump and Clinton are the two most negatively reviewed U.S. presidential candidates of the modern era, and probably ever.

There has been a trend toward harsher ratings of candidates in recent elections. Indeed, as Gallup noted in June, no presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 has ended a campaign with a total favorable scalometer score above 70%. But even in the last two elections, all candidates enjoyed total favorable scores of 55% or higher, far better than either candidate today.

In sum, this contest of historically unpopular candidates concludes with Clinton the apparent "lesser of two evils," and that could be what decides the election.

From http://www.gallup.com/poll/197231/trump-clinton-finish-historically-poor-images.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication