On Thursday, HealthView Services launched its new Retirement Health Care Cost Index, which shows that middle class Americans' retirement health care costs are on a path to exceed their Social Security benefits. The Index measures the percentage of Social Security benefits required to pay for health care-related costs in retirement for a healthy couple receiving the average expected Social Security benefit at full retirement age. 

According to the Index, retirement health care costs will increase from 69 percent of Social Security benefits for a couple retiring in one year to 98 percent of Social Security benefits for a healthy couple retiring in 10 years.  For couples retiring in 20 years, 127 percent of Social Security benefits will be required to cover health care costs, and couples retiring in 32 years will need 190 percent of their Social Security benefits to cover health care costs.

For an average healthy couple retiring next year, HealthView Services' data shows retirement health care costs will amount to approximately $366,599 in today's dollars.  In another 10 years, reflecting estimated health care cost inflation and Social Security cost of living adjustments, costs will rise to approximately $421,083 in today's dollars. 

The Retirement Health Care Cost Index shows that many Americans will have to earmark their Social Security benefits to pay for health care and rely on other assets and sources of income to pay for living expenses in retirement such as housing, transportation, travel, taxes and food.

"The Index reveals an ugly truth that will come as a shock to many: Over the course of time, retirees will need to use their entire Social Security benefit just to pay for health care," said Ron Mastrogiovanni, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HealthView Services.  "Many Americans believe that Medicare will cover most or all of their health care costs in retirement.  This is simply untrue." 

For wealthier couples receiving less than $170,000 in retirement income, a smaller portion of their benefits will be required for retirement health care costs than those receiving average social security benefits, but health care costs will still take up a sizeable portion of those benefits.  For a healthy couple retiring in one year with one spouse earning maximum social security benefits, but earning less than $170,000 in total income, 39 percent of social security benefits will be required to cover health care costs.  This will rise to 52 percent of social security benefits if they retire in 10 years.   

If, however, the same couple earns more than $170,000 in retirement, they will be subject to the Medicare surcharge, which depending on their Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) raises Medicare Parts B and D premiums by between 35 and 200 percent.  An affluent couple retiring in one year who fall into Medicare's top income bracket, will be responsible for an additional $255,267 in lifetime Medicare surcharges.

The Index shows how the gap between health care cost inflation of 5-7 percent, based on current HealthView data, and the 2 percent expected cost of living increases in Social Security will drive the increasing portion of Social Security required for future retirees' health care costs.  It also underscores the range of factors that need to be considered when planning for retirement, including: age, gender, marital status, health, where you live, number of years to retirement, and when Social Security recipients elect to receive their benefits.

"For middle class Americans who tend to rely more on Social Security benefits, the differential between the health care cost inflation rate and Social Security cost-of-living adjustments is a time bomb," added Mastrogiovanni.  "The Index highlights the need for a comprehensive and individualized approach to retirement planning that factors in expected health care costs.  It also reinforces the need for advisor tools, such as our HealthWealthLink application, which show how decumulation strategies, including working longer, saving more, moving to a less expensive state, and Social Security optimization, will impact retirement plans."

Total retirement health care costs measured by the Index include all Medicare premiums, including Parts B and D, Medigap premiums, as well as out-of-pocket costs, including co-pays not covered by Medicare.  The Index assumes that the primary income earner will generate the Social Security average of $1,294 per month in today's dollars and their spouse $817 per month.  While health care costs tend to increase as retirees age, the Index measures the lifetime average of health care costs.