Home Prices See Strong Gains in the First Quarter

Press release from the issuing company

Wednesday, May 29th, 2013

Data through March 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller[1] Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three composites posted double-digit annual increases. The 10-City and 20-City Composites increased by 10.3% and 10.9% in the year to March with the national composite rising by 10.2% in the last four quarters. All 20 cities posted positive year-over-year growth.

In the first quarter of 2013, the national composite rose by 1.2%. On a monthly basis, the 10- and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. Charlotte, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle and Tampa were the five MSAs to record their largest month-over-month gains in over seven years.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 10.2% gain in the first quarter of 2013 over the first quarter of 2012. In March 2013, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 10.3% and 10.9%, respectively.

"Home prices continued to climb," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006.

"Phoenix again had the largest annual increase at 22.5% followed by San Francisco with 22.2% and Las Vegas with 20.6%.Miami and Tampa, the eastern end of the Sunbelt, were softer with annual gains of 10.7% and 11.8%. The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial.

"Other housing market data reported in recent weeks confirm these strong trends: housing starts and permits, sales of new home and existing homes continue to trend higher. At the same time, the larger than usual share of multi-family housing, a large number of homes still in some stage of foreclosure and buying-to-rent by investors suggest that the housing recovery is not complete."

As of the first quarter of 2013, average home prices across the United States are back at their mid-2003 levels. At the end of the first quarter of 2013, the National Index was up 1.2% over the fourth quarter of 2012 and 10.2% above the first quarter of 2012.

As of March 2013, average home prices across the United States are back to their late 2003 levels for both the 10-City and 20-City Composites. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 28-29%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 10.3% and 10.9% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively.

The number of cities that showed monthly gains increased to 15. Denver, Charlotte, Seattle and Washington entered positive territory; Seattle and Charlotte were the most notable with returns of +3.0% and +2.4%. San Francisco posted the highest month-over-month return of 3.9%.

All 20 cities showed increases on an annual basis for at least three consecutive months. Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Tampa all posted double-digit annual returns. Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Francisco were the three MSAs to increase over 20% in March 2013 over March 2012.

The table below summarizes the results for March 2013. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

         
 

2013 Q1

2013 Q1/2012 Q4

2012 Q4/2012 Q3

 
 

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

1-Year Change (%)

U.S. National Index

136.70

1.2%

-0.4%

10.2%

 

March 2013

March/February

February/January

 

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

1-Year Change (%)

Atlanta

98.29

1.3%

0.0%

19.1%

Boston

155.71

1.2%

0.1%

6.7%

Charlotte

117.56

2.4%

-0.2%

7.3%

Chicago

110.73

0.0%

-0.8%

7.8%

Cleveland

99.26

0.0%

-0.8%

4.8%

Dallas

122.30

1.3%

0.2%

6.8%

Denver

135.79

1.4%

-0.2%

9.8%

Detroit

80.70

0.0%

-0.5%

18.5%

Las Vegas

108.36

2.7%

1.4%

20.6%

Los Angeles

186.30

2.3%

1.0%

16.6%

Miami

155.89

1.2%

0.3%

10.7%

Minneapolis

123.15

-1.1%

-0.8%

12.5%

New York

161.54

-0.4%

0.4%

2.6%

Phoenix

130.29

1.7%

1.1%

22.5%

Portland

145.52

2.7%

0.7%

12.8%

San Diego

167.84

2.2%

0.6%

12.1%

San Francisco

153.94

3.9%

0.5%

22.2%

Seattle

145.20

3.0%

-0.2%

10.6%

Tampa

139.91

2.6%

0.6%

11.8%

Washington

189.70

1.7%

-0.5%

7.7%

Composite-10

161.48

1.4%

0.4%

10.3%

Composite-20

148.65

1.4%

0.3%

10.9%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

   

Data through March 2013

       

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

         
 

2013 Q1/2012 Q4

2012 Q4/2012 Q3

 

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

US National

1.2%

3.9%

-0.4%

2.4%

 

March/February Change (%)

February/January Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

1.3%

1.7%

0.0%

1.1%

Boston

1.2%

1.9%

0.1%

1.2%

Charlotte

2.4%

2.0%

-0.2%

0.4%

Chicago

0.0%

1.5%

-0.8%

1.3%

Cleveland

0.0%

0.4%

-0.8%

0.3%

Dallas

1.3%

0.8%

0.2%

0.8%

Denver

1.4%

0.9%

-0.2%

1.0%

Detroit

0.0%

3.3%

-0.5%

0.4%

Las Vegas

2.7%

3.2%

1.4%

1.9%

Los Angeles

2.3%

2.6%

1.0%

1.8%

Miami

1.2%

1.7%

0.3%

1.0%

Minneapolis

-1.1%

0.7%

-0.8%

1.4%

New York

-0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.9%

Phoenix

1.7%

1.8%

1.1%

1.9%

Portland

2.7%

2.6%

0.7%

1.5%

San Diego

2.2%

2.0%

0.6%

0.9%

San Francisco

3.9%

2.6%

0.5%

2.3%

Seattle

3.0%

2.6%

-0.2%

0.5%

Tampa

2.6%

2.4%

0.6%

1.5%

Washington

1.7%

2.3%

-0.5%

0.1%

Composite-10

1.4%

1.4%

0.4%

1.5%

Composite-20

1.4%

1.1%

0.3%

1.3%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

   

Data through March 2013