Leading Economic Index for the U.S. Increases

Press release from the issuing company

Thursday, March 22nd, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in February to 95.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 0.5 percent increase in December.

Said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "Continued broad-based gains in the LEI for the United Statesconfirm a more positive outlook for general economic activity in the first half of 2012, although still subdued consumer expectations and the purchasing managers' index for new orders held the LEI back in February. The CEI for the United States, a measure of current economic conditions, has also been rising as employment, income, and sales data all continue to improve. Industrial production, however, has not yet picked up strongly."

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "Recent data reflect an economy that improved this winter. To be sure, an unseasonably mild winter has contributed to many of the recent positive economic reports. But the consistent signal for the leading series suggests that progress on jobs, output, and incomes may continue through the summer months, if not beyond."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 104.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 0.6 percent increase in December.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.2 percent in February to 114.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in January and a 0.2 percent increase in December.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 

2011      

2012                  

6-month        

 

Dec

Jan

 Feb

Aug to Feb

 

 

 

 

 

Leading index

94.6 r

94.8 r

95.5 p

 

Percent Change

.5

.2 r

.7 p

1.9

Diffusion

60.0

60.0

80.0

70.0

 

 

 

 

 

Coincident Index

103.6 r

103.8 r

104.0 p

 

Percent Change

.6 r

.2

.2 p

1.8

Diffusion

100.0

100.0

87.5

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

Lagging Index

113.3 r

113.9 r

114.1 p

 

Percent Change

.2 r

.5 r

.2 p

1.9

Diffusion

50.0

85.7

50.0

64.3