Investor Sentiment Index Advances in Fourth Quarter of 2011

Press release from the issuing company

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

John Hancock Financial today announced the results of its quarterly measure of investors' views on a range of investment choices, life goals, and economic outlook, as well as their confidence in these areas.  For the fourth quarter of 2011, the John Hancock Investor Sentiment Index score is +15, an improvement from the annual low of +10 measured in the year's third quarter.  

The fourth quarter survey was conducted in late November through early December of 2011.  The John Hancock Investor Sentiment Index is a quarterly poll of approximately 1,000 investors, and reflects the percentage of those who say they believe it is a "good" or "very good" time to invest, minus those who feel the opposite.

The fourth quarter of 2011 reveals elements of optimism for 2012.  More positive views toward real estate and stock investments seem to have driven the uptick, and many of those surveyed feel better about investing in retirement vehicles, like 401(k)s and IRAs. Three out of four investors said they believe that now is a good or very good time to be investing in retirement products such as 401(k) plans and IRAs (73 percent each). Both of these figures represent meaningful increases over last quarter's lows (66 percent for 401(k)s and 67 percent for IRAs in Q3).

"There is also some evidence that investors are dealing with market uncertainty by further diversifying their investments," observed Bill Cheney, Chief Economist for John Hancock. "Half of the investors surveyed say it is a good time to invest in balanced mutual funds, and about three-quarters say they plan to invest in mutual funds in 2012."

More than half of all investors surveyed said they expect to be in a better position financially two years from now compared with today. A little more than a third of investors think they are in a better financial position today compared with two years ago, with 41 percent saying they are in about the same position, and 25 percent saying they are worse off.

The fourth quarter 2011 survey also asked investors about their plans for holiday spending and their top New Year'sresolutions.  Three-quarters of American investors (72 percent) believed that consumer spending this holiday season would have a positive impact on the U.S. economy and stock market.  Most (61 percent) planned to spend the same amount of money on the holidays as they did in 2010, though one out of four (25 percent) said they planned to spend less. About a third (31 percent) said they planned to cut back on gifts to friends and colleagues, where four out of five (83 percent) planned to spend the same amount or more on family.

Most of those surveyed (65 percent) believe that fewer than 10 percent of Americans actually make and keep New Year'sresolutions. However, those who are employed say that saving for retirement is their top financial priority for 2012. More than a quarter (27 percent) say that trimming household budgets and reducing their debt levels are among their resolutions.

Financial New Year's resolutions appear directly related to investors' primary concerns for the new year ahead, which include declining investment values (37 percent) and not being able to accumulate enough savings for retirement (18 percent.)

Among the findings for Q4 2011:

  • Investors continue to think long-term (95 percent) and say they are focused on savings (90 percent).
  • Also indicative of a willingness to test the markets, a greater share of investors (62 percent, compared to 53 percent in Q3) feel that now is a bad or very bad time to be holding on to cash, in the form of CDs, money markets, or similar products. 
  • The national debt (63 percent) and the cost of healthcare (61 percent) remain as issues investors are most concerned about.  Consistent with Q3 results, more than half (54 percent) say they are highly concerned about the unemployment rate.
  • Down dramatically from the beginning of 2011, just one in three (37 percent) suggest they are very concerned about oil and gas prices, compared to six in ten who were worried in the second quarter of the year (62 percent).
  • The gold rush seems to have subsided.  Two in ten investors (20 percent) feel that gold will perform the best in the coming six months, compared to one-third (32 percent) who felt gold would outperform other investment types in the third quarter.