With record Black Friday sales up 6.6 percent (according to ShopperTrak) and average spending per person at nearly $400 (according to Thomson Reuters), retailers, investors and economists alike have reforecast their projections for the 2011 holiday season to be stronger than last year. 

A recent survey of U.S.-based importers, who sell goods at all major U.S. retail outlets, reflects the same optimism and confirms that retailers are re-ordering more merchandise to keep the shelves stocked for the remainder of the season.

According to the Holiday Global Retail Manufacturers and Importers Survey, 73 percent of respondents are experiencing or expect to experience re-orders from retailers this holiday season, an indicator of continued strength this sales season as retailers seek to restock empty shelves. Furthermore, 43 percent anticipate this holiday season will be stronger in comparison to last year and 43 percent believe it will be the same as last year.

Respondents' positive forecast was coupled with a consensus that in order to keep the upbeat sales season alive, discounting is essential.  Sixty percent of respondents expect retailers to rely on discounting throughout the entire holiday season. Of those respondents, nearly 50 percent believe this will have a negative impact on their margins and 80 percent stated that discounting will impact their retail customers' margins.

While importers are concerned about margins, they remain confident that sales this year will finish strong and will carry into spring 2012. In fact, 55 percent of respondents believe that Black Friday's performance is a precursor to a stronger than anticipated spring retail season.

"The fact that importers are receiving re-orders from their retail customers is a very positive sign, one that Capital Business Credit (CBC) has not seen in quite some time," said Andrew Tananbaum, executive chairman of Capital Business Credit, who conducted the survey. "However, we remain cautiously optimistic.  Given continued economic instability, consumers are shopping for bargains more now than ever before, and retailers are forced to respond with deep discounts. This means greater inventory is moving at smaller margins."

Tananbaum continued, "Additionally, we are also concerned about importers' and their Chinese manufacturers' access to credit, as banks on both sides of the Atlantic are not helping small and mid-sized businesses fast enough.  If manufacturers can't get access to the capital they need, they can't make the goods to sell at retail.  Capital Business Credit is committed to working with businesses along all points of the retail supply chain to ensure they have access to the capital and credit they need to keep retail goods flowing into the U.S."

The Holiday Global Retail Manufacturers and Importers Survey was conducted by Capital Business Credit LLC (CBC), a leading non-bank supply-chain financier with offices in the U.S. and China.  The survey was conducted the week of December 5, 2011.