The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China decreased 0.1 percent in October to 160.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in September and a 0.6 percent increase in August. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.

Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Andrew Polk: "The risk of a more substantive slowdown inChina's economic growth than anticipated so far is rising amid deteriorating external conditions and domestic real estate tightening. This is evidenced by the decline of the LEI for China coupled with the slower growth of the coincident economic index. Consumer expectations continued to decline, and the manufacturing and export indicators also contributed to the slight drop in the LEI in October. Targeted loosening of credit markets by the authorities should provide marginal aid to struggling enterprises in the coming months, but the pass through from previous policy tightening measures will continue to act as a brake on the economy."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 207.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September and a 0.4 percent increase in August. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in October.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.