Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on the October job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, November 8, 2011. The survey was conducted in October and reflects the responses of 2,077 randomly-sampled NFIB members:

“The cold has set in, and it looks like it might be a long winter for small-business owners. Still hunkering down, small-business owners reported a small, but overall reduction in employment, posting an average reduction of 0.1 employees per firm in October.

“While consumer spending posted a slight uptick, those gains did not translate to improved small-business sentiment, and more importantly, did not create jobs. Seasonally adjusted, 12 percent of the owners added an average of 3.1 workers per firm over the past few months, but 11 percent reduced employment an average of 3.9 workers per firm. The good news is that October’s jobs numbers are better than September’s (which showed a net decrease of 0.3 employees per firm), but still not good enough to lower the unemployment rate. Some firms do have job openings, but 31 percent of those who hired or tried to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions.

“Fourteen (14) percent of small employers (seasonally adjusted) reported hard to fill job openings—the same as last month. Over the next three months, nine percent plan to increase employment (down 2 points), and 12 percent plan to reduce their workforce (unchanged), yielding a seasonally adjusted net three percent of owners planning to create new jobs. This is down 1 point from September and 2 points below August, the month that has, thus far, posted the strongest reading for 2011. For some context, in an expansion, this number should exhibit double digit readings.

“A snapshot at regional numbers reveals that job creation plans were quite negative among firms in all regions except the West Central and Mountain states. Energy development is driving a lot of business activity in these states.

“Overall, prospects for job creation remain bleak. I’ll say it again -- it could be a long winter.”