Nearly Half of Metros Areas Still Losing Jobs

Press release from the issuing company

Sunday, October 30th, 2011

According to a report by Headlight, LLC, the "Best Performing" large metros with the highest job growth rate of the summer wereRiverside, CA;Kansas City, MO;Tampa, FLandPhoenix, AR. The best performing medium metros wereCape Coral-Fort Myers, FL;Tucson, AZ;Stockton, CA;Gary, IN; Boise City-Nampa, ID;Modesto, CAandHonolulu, HI. The top 5 best performing small metros wereCumberland, MD-WV;Lewiston-Auburn, ME;Holland-Grand Haven, MI;Hot Springs, ARandWenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA.

Headlight, LLC conducted an analysis of employment trends from June to September, 2011 to identify the metropolitan areas that experienced the highest job growth. It was determined that the best performing (top 10% of their size category) large metros averaged an impressive 5.4% annualized growth rate. However,RiversideandPhoenixstill have double-digit deficits to overcome since the recession: they are still 12% and 10% down (respectively) from their employment levels inDecember 2007, which would require 27 and 30 more months to reach if the summer's growth rate holds constant.

The seven best performing medium-sized metros had a 6.7% annualized growth rate this summer. Six of these metros were hard-hit during the recession but are starting to rebound.Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FLgrew at a 10.3% annualized growth rate;Tucson, AZgrew at a 7.7% annual rate; andStockton, CAgrew at a 6.8% annual rate. However,Cape Coral-Fort MyersandStocktonalso have double-digit deficits to overcome since the recession.

The 28 best performing small metros averaged an impressive 13.3% annualized growth rate this summer. The small metros with the highest annualized rates were:Cumberland, MD-WV– 31.2%;Lewiston-Auburn, ME– 22.1%;Holland-Grand Haven, MI– 20.0%;Hot Springs, AR–19.0%;Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA– 18.5%; andColumbia, MO– 17.8%.

The U.S. economy has experienced positive growth every month for the last 12 months, a very encouraging sign. However, month-to-month growth rates have been consistently low: the U.S. employment base grew just 1.1% over the past 12 months.

While growth has appeared slow but steady for the nation, the recovery has been far from uniform across metros in the U.S. A surprising finding in our analysis is that 43% of all metros experienced job losses during the Summer of 2011. These job losses were most pronounced in small metros (under 500,000 population), but were consistent across all size categories. Thirty-five percent of large metros (1.5M population or higher) lost jobs and 41% of medium-sized metros lost jobs.

The full list of the top 10% best performing metros in the U.S. are listed below.

Top 10% Best Performing Metro Areas

Large metros (out of 46 large metros):

1.Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

2.Kansas City, MO-KS

3.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

4.Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ(out of 46 large metros)

Medium metros (out of 71):

1.Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

2.Tucson, AZ

3.Stockton, CA

4.Gary, IN

5. Boise City-Nampa, ID

6.Modesto, CA

7.Honolulu, HI

Small metros (out of 269):

1.Cumberland, MD-WV;

2.Lewiston-Auburn, ME

3.Holland-Grand Haven, MI

4.Hot Springs, AR

5.Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA

6.Columbia, MO

7.Yuba City, CA

8.Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA

9.State College, PA

10.Odessa, TX

11.Lawrence, KS

12.Longview, WA

13.Hanford-Corcoran, CA

14.Lafayette, IN

15.Casper, WY

16.Lafayette, LA

17.Hattiesburg, MS

18.Redding, CA

19.Logan, UT-ID

20.Pocatello, ID

21. Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA

22.Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA

23.Fairbanks, AK

24.Canton-Massillon, OH

25.Napa, CA

26.Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA

27.Grand Junction, CO

28.Pittsfield, MA