Credit Cycle Turns with New Credit Growth
Press release from the issuing company
Tuesday, July 26th, 2011
In its latest national report on consumer credit trends, Equifax finds the credit cycle has turned as new credit growth continues. Several portfolio metrics indicate the credit cycle is moving to stabilization and growth. In general, payment behavior has improved and loan portfolios are lower risk. Write-offs have peaked, spurring origination momentum.
According to Equifax's latest monthly Credit Trend Report forJune 2011, new credit dollars are increasing for auto, bankcard, student loan and home equity revolving lines on a year-to-date basis. Total new credit available has increased from$209 billionyear-to-date inApril 2010to$240 billioninApril 2011— an increase of nearly 15 percent. While this number is far below the$400 millionplus performances of 2006/2007, the turn follows four years of declines.
"Trouble spots remain," saidMichael Koukounas, Equifax's Senior Vice President of Client Services. "While many delinquencies have peaked, severely delinquent home finance loans – the shadow inventory – remain elevated. Student loan delinquencies and write-off balances have not peaked and continue to increase.
"However, positive momentum is evident in that loans opened since 2008 with much tighter underwriting are doing much better than loans booked between 2005 and 2007. More than two thirds of all delinquent balances are from these earlier loans," he added.
Key findings include:
Auto
- Auto loan originations rose nearly 17 percent year-to-date in April and are up nine percent month-over-month. While both banks and captive financiers are originating more auto loans, banks are being much more cautious in the subprime sector. Captive finance sources issued almost 25 percent of new loans to buyers with scores under 600 in April. The comparable bank subprime number is about eight percent.
Credit Cards
- Notable within the data is the rebound in the number of bankcard originations to subprime* borrowers, with an 80 percent increase in originations forApril 2011vs.April 2010alone. New subprime bankcard origination levels for January-April 2011are up more than 66 percent over 2010 levels. This is of note when compared to the 63 percent YOY decrease the industry witnessed for the same period from 2008 to 2009.
- Total new bankcard limits have risen as well, with increases of more than 27 percent (January –April 2011), and new subprime bankcard credit limits experienced an increase of 68 percent.
Consumer Finance
- New consumer finance credit loans grew 3.5 percent year-to-date and two percent month-over-month in April, and – like bankcards and autos – show increases in subprime. In fact, loans to customers with scores below 599 – 41 percent – are up about two percent over 2010 and almost 10 percent over 2006.


